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Future of Jobs and Generative AI

The advent of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT promises to transform the workplace by automating or augmenting a wide range of occupational tasks. However, a single perspective cannot fully grasp both the opportunities and risks these technologies represent across industries, workers, businesses and society. This article analyzes the World Economic Forum’s recent white paper [1] assessing the impact of LLMs on jobs through the lens of Spiral Dynamics. This integral framework reveals how different value systems perceive threats and opportunities differently. Administrative roles face disruption but efficiency gains (Blue). Innovative businesses are pressured to adopt but see new revenue potential (Orange). Vulnerable workers require support amidst job transformations (Green). Policymakers struggle to holistically analyze systemic impacts (Yellow). Realizing the benefits of LLMs requires honoring multiple worldviews, evolving processes, encouraging innovation, caring for people and conducting systems analysis. The analysis provides insights into LLMs’ multi-dimensional impacts and underscores the need for inclusive dialogue and initiatives to shape the AI-enabled future of work.

Here are the key points:

LLMs could significantly impact many jobs due to their ability to automate or augment language-based tasks, which account for an estimated 62% of work time.
The analysis assessed over 19,000 work tasks across 867 occupations to assess their LLM exposure. Tasks with high automation potential are routine and repetitive clerical/administrative tasks. Tasks with high augmentation potential require more abstract reasoning and problem-solving. Tasks with lower exposure potential emphasize interpersonal interaction.
Occupations with the highest automation potential include credit authorizers, telemarketers, statistical assistants, and tellers. Occupations with the highest augmentation potential include insurance underwriters, bioengineers, mathematicians, and editors. Occupations with lower exposure include counselors, clergy, home health aides, and lawyers.
Adopting LLMs will also likely create new roles like AI developers, content creators, interface designers, data curators, and AI ethics specialists.
The financial services and information technology industries have the overall highest potential exposure. The finance and IT functional areas also have increased exposure.
Significant alignment exists between occupations this analysis identifies as having high augmentation potential and those the Future of Jobs Report found to have high expected job growth. Similarly, occupations with high automation potential align with declining occupations.
The report concludes LLMs will transform jobs and tasks, requiring strategies by businesses and government to prepare workforces for the change through training, transition support, and social safety nets. Overall, LLMs present opportunities to raise productivity and create new jobs, if managed responsibly.

Spiral Dynamics stages

What color are you Spiral Dynamics?

Color	Beige	Purple	Red	Blue	Orange	Green	Yellow	Turquoise
In a life	Survival	Family relations	The rule of force	The power of truth	Competition	Interpersonal relations	Flexible stream	The Global vision
In a business	Own farm	Family business	Starting up a personal business	Business Process Management	Project management	Social networks	Win-Win-Win behavior	Synthesis

Here is an analysis of the World Economic Forum white paper on large language models and jobs through the lens of Spiral Dynamics stages:

Spiral Dynamics Stage	Quotes from Document
Beige	No relevant quotes
Purple	No relevant quotes
Red	No relevant quotes
Blue	"With 62% of total work time involving language-based tasks, the widespread adoption of LLMs, such as ChatGPT, could significantly impact a broad spectrum of job roles." (p.4) This reflects the blue focus on structure, process and order.
Orange	"Adopting LLMs will transform business and the nature of work, displacing some existing jobs, enhancing others and ultimately creating many new roles." (p.19) This reflects the orange drive for innovation and progress.
Green	"Governments can also partner with and support employers and educational institutions to provide training programs that prepare workers for the jobs that will grow and benefit the most from LLMs. Additionally, social safety nets and assistance in transitioning to new roles will need to be reimagined and be more precisely targeted for those most likely to be affected." (p.19) This reflects the green concern for people and relationships.
Yellow	"To assess the impact of LLMs on jobs, this paper provides an analysis of over 19,000 individual tasks across 867 occupations, assessing the potential exposure of each task to LLM adoption, classifying them as tasks that have a high potential for automation, high potential for augmentation, low potential for either or are unaffected (non-language tasks). The paper also provides an overview of new roles that are emerging due to the adoption of LLMs." (p.4) This reflects yellow's emphasis on complex systems analysis.
Turquoise	No relevant quotes

The document overall reflects blue, orange, and green worldviews, with some elements of yellow systems thinking. There are no clear expressions of the beige, purple, red or turquoise value systems. This analysis illustrates how technology impacts different aspects of society and values.

Threats

Here is an analysis of threats and affected stakeholders through the lens of Spiral Dynamics stages:

Spiral Dynamics Stage	Threats	Affected Stakeholders
Beige	No major threats identified	N/A
Purple	No major threats identified	N/A
Red	No major threats identified	N/A
Blue	Disruption of administrative processes and routines	Organizations, administrative staff
Orange	Pressure to rapidly adopt new technologies	Businesses, managers
Green	Job losses, inequality, lack of support during transition	Individual workers, marginalized groups, society
Yellow	Complexity of analyzing and managing impacts	Policy-makers, business leaders
Turquoise	No major threats identified	N/A

In summary, the blue stage is threatened by disruption of established administrative processes, the orange faces pressure to innovate, the green risks job losses and inequality, and the yellow struggles with complex systems analysis. This highlights how different worldviews perceive threats and opportunities from the same technology trend. A holistic perspective is needed to understand the range of stakeholders and design responsible policies.

Elon Musk said about the danger of artificial intelligence (A.I.) in an interview with Tucker Carlson in April 2023. Below you can read an abridged version of the results of our VUCA poll "A.I. and the end of civilization". The full version of the results is available for free in the FAQ section after login or registration.

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diagram Korrelation

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Kritiska värdet av korrelationskoefficienten

Normal Distribution, av William Sealy Gosset (Student) r = 0.0727

Icke normal distribution, av Spearman r = 0.003

Visa endast resultat > r = 0.0727

Distribution	Icke normal	Vanligt	Icke normal	Vanligt	Vanligt	Vanligt	Vanligt	Vanligt
Alla frågor Alla frågor 1) Säkerhet (hur mycket håller du med eller håller inte med?) 2) Kontroll (hur mycket håller du med eller håller inte med om?)
1) Säkerhet (hur mycket håller du med eller håller inte med?)
Answer 1	-	Svagt positivt 0.0666	Svagt positivt 0.0209	Svagt positivt 0.0941	Svagt negativt -0.1169	Svagt negativt -0.0089	Svagt negativt -0.0469	Svagt positivt 0.0197
Answer 2	-	Svagt positivt 0.0169	Svagt negativt -0.0027	Svagt positivt 0.0434	Svagt negativt -0.0239	Svagt positivt 0.0400	Svagt negativt -0.0073	Svagt negativt -0.0555
Answer 3	-	Svagt negativt -0.0228	Svagt negativt -0.0256	Svagt positivt 0.0045	Svagt positivt 0.0553	Svagt negativt -0.0232	Svagt negativt -0.0105	Svagt positivt 0.0074
Answer 4	-	Svagt positivt 0.0329	Svagt negativt -0.0047	Svagt positivt 0.0149	Svagt negativt -0.0412	Svagt negativt -0.0342	Svagt negativt -0.0074	Svagt positivt 0.0449
Answer 5	-	Svagt negativt -0.0094	Svagt negativt -0.0261	Svagt negativt -0.0230	Svagt positivt 0.0463	Svagt positivt 0.0346	Svagt positivt 0.0300	Svagt negativt -0.0519
Answer 6	-	Svagt negativt -0.0118	Svagt negativt -0.0530	Svagt negativt -0.0733	Svagt positivt 0.0702	Svagt negativt -0.0155	Svagt positivt 0.0470	Svagt positivt 0.0129
Answer 7	-	Svagt negativt -0.0643	Svagt positivt 0.0935	Svagt negativt -0.0592	Svagt negativt -0.0012	Svagt positivt 0.0092	Svagt negativt -0.0034	Svagt positivt 0.0233
2) Kontroll (hur mycket håller du med eller håller inte med om?)
Answer 8	-	Svagt positivt 0.0149	Svagt positivt 0.0058	Svagt positivt 0.0830	Svagt positivt 0.0595	Svagt negativt -0.0326	Svagt negativt -0.0791	Svagt negativt -0.0463
Answer 9	-	Svagt positivt 0.0229	Svagt negativt -0.0238	Svagt negativt -0.0378	Svagt positivt 0.0297	Svagt positivt 0.0811	Svagt negativt -0.0113	Svagt negativt -0.0566
Answer 10	-	Svagt positivt 0.0132	Svagt negativt -0.0401	Svagt negativt -0.0533	Svagt negativt -0.0207	Svagt positivt 0.0031	Svagt positivt 0.0593	Svagt positivt 0.0308
Answer 11	-	Svagt positivt 0.0224	Svagt positivt 0.0023	Svagt positivt 0.0128	Svagt negativt -0.0592	Svagt negativt -0.0166	Svagt negativt -0.0136	Svagt positivt 0.0552
Answer 12	-	Svagt negativt -0.0087	Svagt positivt 0.0333	Svagt positivt 0.0523	Svagt positivt 0.0403	Svagt negativt -0.0660	Svagt positivt 0.0087	Svagt negativt -0.0436
Answer 13	-	Svagt negativt -0.0947	Svagt negativt -0.0346	Svagt negativt -0.0132	Svagt positivt 0.0111	Svagt positivt 0.0178	Svagt positivt 0.0731	Svagt positivt 0.0036
Answer 14	-	Svagt negativt -0.0009	Svagt positivt 0.0838	Svagt negativt -0.0344	Svagt negativt -0.0762	Svagt negativt -0.0236	Svagt negativt -0.0102	Svagt positivt 0.0767

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Opportunities

Here is an analysis of opportunities and affected stakeholders through the lens of Spiral Dynamics stages:

Spiral Dynamics Stage	Opportunities	Affected Stakeholders
Beige	No major opportunities identified	N/A
Purple	No major opportunities identified	N/A
Red	No major opportunities identified	N/A
Blue	Increased efficiency of administrative processes	Organizations, administrative staff
Orange	Creation of new business models and revenue streams	Businesses, entrepreneurs
Green	Upskilling workers, maintaining an inclusive workforce	Individual workers, marginalized groups, society
Yellow	Holistic analysis of technology's impact on work	Policy-makers, business leaders
Turquoise	No major opportunities identified	N/A

In summary, blue sees opportunities for improved efficiency, orange in innovation and profit, green in supporting workers, and yellow in systems analysis. This highlights how different worldviews perceive opportunities from the same technology trend. An integral perspective is required to balance opportunities for organizations and individuals.

GAP Analysis

Here is a GAP analysis from a Spiral Dynamics perspective:

Spiral Dynamics Stage	GAP Analysis
Beige	No major gap identified
Purple	No major gap identified
Red	No major gap identified
Blue	GAP: Lacks discussion of how to evolve administrative processes rather than just making existing ones more efficient
Orange	GAP: Could provide more examples of how new business models and industries could arise from LLMs
Green	GAP: More detail is needed on programs to support workers through transitions and ensure opportunities are inclusive
Yellow	GAP: Deeper analysis required on technological impacts across education, business, and government domains
Turquoise	GAP: Holistic vision absent - how could LLMs improve society and actualization beyond business impacts?

In summary, blue could be used more on process evolution, orange on business model innovation, green on worker support, yellow on cross-domain impacts, and turquoise on realizing higher human potential. This reflects common gaps faced when new technologies are viewed primarily through one worldview lens rather than holistically. An integral perspective is needed to fully understand impacts and opportunities.

Overcome Gaps

Here are some suggested measures to overcome the gaps through the lens of Spiral Dynamics perspective:

Spiral Dynamics Stage	Suggested Measures to Overcome GAPs
Beige	N/A
Purple	N/A
Red	N/A
Blue	Conduct process redesign workshops to evolve administrative workflows
Orange	Research case studies and build scenarios describing new LLMs-enabled business models
Green	Profile reskilling programs and multi-stakeholder partnerships to support workers
Yellow	Model impacts of LLMs on education, healthcare, government, and other complex systems
Turquoise	Envision how LLMs could advance human potential and consciousness evolution

In summary, suggested measures include:

Blue: Process redesign workshops
Orange: New business model research
Green: Reskilling program profiles
Yellow: Modelling systemic impacts
Turquoise: Envisioning advancing human potential

This highlights the value of taking a holistic perspective and utilizing tools and ways of thinking from multiple stages and worldviews to fully understand and act upon the opportunities presented by emerging technologies like large language models.

Conclusion

The Spiral Dynamics framework reveals that the opportunities and threats presented by large language models are perceived differently across value systems. Blue sees potential efficiency gains but disruption of administrative routines. Orange focuses on innovation possibilities but feels pressured to rapidly adopt. Green emphasizes supporting impacted workers but risks exacerbating inequalities. Yellow provides systems analysis but grapples with complexity.

Fully realizing the benefits of large language models in the workplace and society requires transcending any worldview. An integral approach that honors multiple perspectives is needed. This includes evolving processes, encouraging innovation, caring for people, and systemic analysis. Further, a holistic vision looks beyond business impacts to how emerging technologies can advance human potential and social actualization.

By understanding these different value perspectives, businesses, policymakers, and workers can collaboratively shape the future of work in the age of artificial intelligence. A shared vision arises when stakeholders cooperate across stages of psychological and social development. This white paper provides insights into the multi-dimensional impacts of large language models across industries, occupations, and societal roles. Yet more inclusive dialogue and initiatives are needed to proactively guide this technology for the benefit of all.

[1] https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Jobs_of_Tomorrow_Generative_AI_2023.pdf

2023.10.12

Valerii Kosenko

Produktägare SaaS SDTEST®

Valerii utbildades till socialpedagog-psykolog 1993 och har sedan dess tillämpat sina kunskaper inom projektledning.
Valerii tog en magisterexamen och projekt- och programledarexamen 2013. Under masterprogrammet blev han bekant med Project Roadmap (GPM Deutsche Gesellschaft für Projektmanagement e. V.) och Spiral Dynamics.
Valerii är författaren till att utforska osäkerheten i V.U.C.A. koncept med Spiral Dynamics och matematisk statistik i psykologi, och 38 internationella undersökningar.

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